Using genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 to support contact tracing and public health surveillance in rural Humboldt County, California. (preprint)

During the COVID-19 pandemic within the United States, much of the responsibility for diagnostic testing and epidemiologic response has relied on the action of county-level departments of public health. Here we describe the integration of genomic surveillance into epidemiologic response within Humboldt County, a rural county in northwest California. Through a collaborative effort, 853 whole SARS-CoV-2 genomes were generated, representing [~]58% of the 1,449 SARS-CoV-2-positive cases detected in Humboldt County as of mid-March 2021. Phylogenetic analysis of these data was used to develop a comprehensive understanding of SARS-CoV-2 introductions to the county and to support contact tracing and epidemiologic investigations of all large outbreaks in the county. In the case of an outbreak on a commercial farm, viral genomic data were used to validate reported epidemiologic links and link additional cases within the community who did not report a farm exposure to the outbreak. During a separate outbreak within a skilled nursing facility, genomic surveillance data were used to rule out the putative index case, detect the emergence of an independent Spike:N501Y substitution, and verify that the outbreak had been brought under control. These use cases demonstrate how developing genomic surveillance capacity within local public health departments can support timely and responsive deployment of genomic epidemiology for surveillance and outbreak response based on local needs and priorities.

Data-driven estimate of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity threshold in populations with individual contact pattern variations (preprint)

The development of efficacious vaccines has made it possible to envision mass vaccination programs aimed at suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission around the world. Here we use a data-driven age-structured multilayer representation of the population of 34 countries to estimate the disease induced immunity threshold, accounting for the contact variability across individuals. We show that the herd immunization threshold of random (un-prioritized) mass vaccination programs is generally larger than the disease induced immunity threshold. We use the model to test two additional vaccine prioritization strategies, transmission-focused and age-based, in which individuals are inoculated either according to their behavior (number of contacts) or infection fatality risk, respectively. Our results show that in the case of a sterilizing vaccine the behavioral strategy achieves herd-immunity at a coverage comparable to the disease-induced immunity threshold, but it appears to have inferior performance in averting deaths than the risk vaccination strategy. The presented results have potential use in defining the effects that the heterogeneity of social mixing and contact patterns has on herd immunity levels and the deployment of vaccine prioritization strategies.